11/06/2011

ကမၻာမေၾကနဲ႕ ဗန္ေကာက္ေရ

ထိုင္းျပည္ထဲေရး၀န္ၾကီးဌာနမွထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္အရ ယခုအၾကိမ္ ေရေဘးတြင္ လူ ၃၅၆ ဦး ထက္မနည္း ေသဆံုးျပီး ဒုကၡသည္ သန္းေက်ာ္ ရွိေၾကာင္းျဖင့္ သိရပါသည္။ ေအာက္တိုဘာလ ၃၀ ရက္ေန႕က ေက်ာက္ဖယား ျမစ္ရဲ ႕ ေရအမွတ္ဟာ ဒီကေန႔ အျမင့္ဆံုးကိုေရာက္ရွိၿပီး ရပ္တန္႔သြားတာေၾကာင့္ေရွ႕ သီတင္းပတ္ထဲမွာ ေရျပန္က်ပါလိမ့္မယ္လို႔ ဝန္ႀကီးခ်ဳပ္ယင္းလပ္ က ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္ကို အပတ္စဥ္ေျပာတဲ့ မိန္႔ခြန္းထဲမွာ ေျပာၾကားထား ေပမဲ့ေရေတြက ဘန္ေကာက္ၿမိဳ ့ေျမာက္ဖက္ျခမ္းမွ စီးဆင္းလာေနဆဲျဖစ္ၿပီး၊ ဘန္ေကာက္ျမိဳ ့အေရွ ့ဖက္ႏွင့္ အေနာက္ဖက္ျခမ္းကို ေကြ ့ၿပီး စီးဆင္းေနပါတယ္။ ေခ်ာင္ဖရာျမစ္ရိုးတေလ်ာက္ႏွင့္ ဗန္ေကာက္ၿမိဳ႕အေနာက္ဖက္ ေျမာက္ဘက္ အေရွ႕ေျမာက္ဖက္တို႕မွ တစတစ အတြင္းပိုင္းသို႕တိုးလာေနဆဲျဖစ္သည္။


ေက်ာ္လေကးဘြာ စာတိုက္

ဘန္ေကာက္ၿမိဳ ့ေျမာက္ဘက္က ၀င္လာတဲ့ ေရေတြဟာ ေမာ္ခ်စ္ ကားဂိတ္ေဟာင္း ႏွင့္ BTS ေကာင္းကင္ ရထား ပထမ ဘူတာကို ေရေရာက္ရွိေနၿပီး၊ ေရတစ္ေပခဲြခန္႔ တက္လာေနပါသည္။ ၀ိဖါ၀ဒီးလမ္းက စိန္ဂြ်န္ေက်ာင္း အေရွ ႔ကို ေရမ်ား ေက်ာ္လြန္လာေနၿပီး မင္ဘူရီဖက္က ေရဟာလဲ ဗန္းကပိ န၀ါမင္လမ္းမ အထိ ေရာက္ေနတယ္လို႕သတင္းေတြက ဆိုပါတယ္။ က်ေနာ္ေနတဲ့အရပ္ကိုေတာ့ေရမေရာက္ေသးပါ။ ဒါေပမဲ့ က်ေနာ့စာတိုက္ေသတၱာကေတာ့ န၀ါမင္ (ယခင္အေခၚ စူဖါဖိဖန္ ၁လမ္း) မွာရွိတာမို႕ အေျခအေနမဆိုးခင္ စာေတြသိမ္းဖိို႕ စိတ္ကူးရလို႕ ဒီမနက္ သြားပါတယ္။ န၀ါမင္က ကေစဆပ္ တကၠသိုလ္ဘက္ လမ္းခြဲမွာ ေရနဲနဲ (ေျခမ်က္စိျမဳပ္ေလာက္) စေတြ႕ပီး ပထ၀ိကြန္ေစ်းေရွ႕ ကစပီးေျခာက္ေသြ႕ေနလိုက္တာ ေက်ာ္လေကးဘြာ စာတိုက္မေရာက္ခင္ကေန စာတိုက္ အလြန္ထိ ေရဒူးဆစ္ေလာက္ရွိပါတယ္။ စာတိုက္ထဲ၀င္ပီးရင္ စက္ျပန္မႏိုးဘဲေနမွာစိုးလို႕ ေရစပ္စပ္ စာတိုက္နဲ႕ ေရတဖ်တ္ဖ်တ္ ခရီးကိုဘဲ ဓါတ္ပံုရိုက္ရင္း ျပန္လွည့္လါခဲ့ပါတယ္။







စင္ထရယ္လ္ လက္ပေရာင္းေရွ႕ျမင္ကြင္း


















ခ်တ္တူးခ်တ္မွာေရအျမင့္ ၂၀စင္တီမီတာထိ တုိးလာပါတယ္။ လက္ဆီ ခရုိင္မွာ ၃၀စင္တီမီတာနဲ႔၁၂၀စင္တီမီတာအၾကား ရွိပါတယ္။ ခလုံဆမ္၀ခရုိင္မွာ စင္တီမီတာ ၆၀ကေန ၉၀ထိ ေရာက္ေနပါၿပီ။

ၿမိဳ႕ေတာ္ရဲ႕ေျမေအာက္ရထားဘူတာရုံေတြကုိလည္ ပိတ္ထားလုိက္ရပါၿပီ။ အေ၀းေျပး ဘတ္စ္ ကားလုပ္ငန္းေတြကုိ လုပ္ကုိင္ေနတဲ့ သယ္ယူပုိ႔ေဆာင္ေရးကုမၸဏီလိမီတက္ဟာ ကား၀င္းထဲ ေရေရာက္ရင္ ေမာ္ခ်စ္(သစ္) ဘတ္စ္ကားဂိတ္ႀကီးကေန ဘတ္စ္ကားအကုန္လုံး တနာရီအတြင္း ေရႊ႕ေျပာင္းႏုိင္ေရး စီမံကိန္းတခုကုိ အခုအခါ ႀကိဳ တင္ေရးဆဲြ ျပင္ဆင္လုပ္ကုိင္ေနရပါတယ္။ ဒီဘတ္စ္ကားဂိတ္ဟာ ခ်တ္တူးခ်တ္က ကမ္ဖဲန္းဖက္လမ္းမႀကီးေပၚမွာ ရွိ ပါတယ္။ ကုမၸဏီအေနနဲ႔ ဘတ္စ္ကားေတြကုိ ဖထုမ္ဌာနီခရုိင္က ဖရာတူနမ္ထာဖရာ အင္းနဲ႔ ဆု၀ဏဖူးမ္ေလဆိပ္၊ ဒါမွမ ဟုတ္ ခ်ဳန္ဘူရီမွာရွိတဲ့ေနရာကုိ ေရႊ႕ေျပာင္းရႏုိင္ၿပီး အဲဒီကေန လုပ္ငန္းေတြ ဆက္ လည္ပတ္သြားမွာ ျဖစ္တယ္လုိ႔ တာ ၀န္ရွိသူေတြက ေျပာပါတယ္။ဘန္ေကာက္အေနာက္ပုိင္းမွာ ေရလႊမ္းမုိးမႈဟာ ဆီယမ္တကၠသုိလ္နဲ႔ ထာဖရာလမ္းဆုံဆီကုိ ဦးတည္စီးလာေနပါတယ္။


ဘန္ေကာက္ေျမအေနအထားအရလတ္ဖေရာင္း နယ္ေျမၿပီးရင္ ရတ္ခ်ာဒါဖီဆက္လမ္းမႀကီးနဲ႔ ခ်တ္တူးခ်တ္နယ္ ေျမကုိ ေရေရာက္လာမယ္လုိ႔ ခန္႔မွန္းထားပါတယ္။



















ၿမိဳ ့လယ္ေခါင္လို ့ေျပာလို ့ရတဲ့ ပတူနမ့္ အရပ္ကို ေရေရာက္ဖို ့၁၀ ကီလိုေလာက္ဘဲ လိုေတာ့တယ္။ ျမိဳ ့တြင္းပိုင္းဟာ ေျမနိမ့္ပိုင္းျဖစ္လို ့အခု အတိုင္းေရ၀င္လာသည့္ႏွဳန္းနဲ ့ ဆို ့ရင္ တစ္ပတ္ေလာက္ အတြင္းမွာ ျမိဳ ့လယ္ေခါင္ကို ေရ၀င္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။

ဘန္ေကာက္၊ တျခားခရုိ္င္ေတြမွာလည္း ေရေတြ တုိးလာေနပါတယ္။ ဘန္ေကာက္အေနာက္ပုိင္းမွာ ယမန္ေန႔ကထက္ ေရအျမင့္ ၂၀ စင္တီမီတာ တုိးလာပါတယ္။

ဘန္ေကာက္ျမိဳ ့ကို ေရ၀ိုင္းထားတယ္လို ့ေျပာ ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဘန္ေကာက္ျမိဳ ့လယ္ေခါင္ကိုေရမ၀င္ေအာင္ အစိုးရက တာတမံေတြ ့နဲ ့ပိတ္ထားေပမယ့္လည္း တားဆီးႏိုင္မယ့္ အေနအထားမွာ မေတြ ့ရေသးပါဘူး၊

ဘန္ေကာက္ေရေဘးကယ္တင္ဖုိ႔အတြက္ တပ္ေတာ္ ၃နဲ႔တပ္ေတာ္ ၂က တပ္ခဲြေပါင္း ၃၀ ေလာက္က ေနာက္ထပ္ စစ္ သားေတြ ထပ္ျဖည့္ထားရပါတယ္။



















မဟာခ်ဳိင္ေဒသ
ဟာ၊ ေရနစ္ျမွဳပ္သြားဖြယ္ရာ ရွိျပီး၊ ေနထိုင္တဲ့ လူေတြ အေရးေပၚေရႊ ့ ေျပာင္းေပး ရမယ္လို ့ ထိုင္းအာဏာပိုင္ မ်ားက ႏို၀င္ဘာ(၅) ရက္ေန ့ မနက္(၃) နာရီမွာ ရုပ္ျမင္ သံၾကားနဲ ့ အျခားသတင္းေတြ ထဲမွာ ေၾကညာ ထားပါတယ္။

မဟာခ်ိဳင္ေဒသက ျမန္မာအလုပ္သမားမ်ား မဟာခ်ိဳင္ ကယ္ဆယ္ေရးစခန္း ဖုန္း ၀၈၀-၄၅၈၅-၁၂၈၊ ၀၈၉-၄၁၃၃-၁၇၉၊ ၀၈၉-၆၈၅- ၂၉၆၆၊ ၀၈၄-၆၇၀-၅၇၂၇ တို့ကို ဆက္သြယ္ အကူအညီ ေတာင္းခံနိုင္ၾကသလို၊ ေရေဘးသင့္ေနသူမ်ားကို ကူညီေပးလိုသူမ်ားလည္း ဆက္သြယ္ႏိုင္ပါသည္။




11/02/2011

KWR Special Report



Analyzing the Prospects for Change in Myanmar:
Interview with David Steinberg of Georgetown University


Interview by Keith W. Rabin

Thank you David for speaking with us today. It has been awhile since we last talked. Can you tell us about your background and interest in Myanmar?

I originally focused on Chinese Studies and began to study how the Chinese treated minorities in the southern regions and after the Korean War studied at the School of Oriental and Asian Studies in London where I began to focus on Burma and Southeast Asia. I was then based in Myanmar as the Assistant Representative of The Asia Foundation until the government changed and we were asked to leave after the coup of 1962. Later on I joined USAID and came to serve as Director of Philippines, Thailand and Burmese Affairs, where I was responsible for leading the team that negotiated the reentry of USAID operations in Burma in 1979. Currently I am a Professor at Georgetown University where I focus on Myanmar, North Korea and South Korea, Southeast Asia and US policy in Asia.

In the 1950s Myanmar was perceived by many analysts to be one of the more promising countries in Asia. Can you tell us about the country and its underlying potential and -- if political and structural problems can be resolved -- some of the trade and investment opportunities there?


If we were sitting in a hotel bar in 1956 asking ourselves which countries in Asia would develop most quickly and compared Burma, Thailand and South Korea -- each with a similar per capita income and population at the time -- Burma would have been the obvious choice. It was the world's largest rice exporter, exported oil to India, had timber, gems, minerals and good supplies of many other natural resources. It was also under-populated, with a well-educated workforce and had a parliamentary system. In contrast South Korea was hardly worth considering at the time yet today possesses a per capita income that is approximately twenty times that of Myanmar.

Given the neglect in recent decades, Myanmar is essentially starting from scratch in terms of

building a modern economy. The nation still has an abundance of natural resources, a strategic location between China and India and access to the sea and the world’s busiest shipping lanes. It has a population estimated to be about 55 million people,

and is one of the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a rapidly integrating market. ASEAN collectively possesses a total GDP approaching US$800 billion.

When I used to travel to Myanmar in the 1980s a lot of people would tell me "When the government changed in the early 60s we thought this would last a year or two and we are still waiting". Now another twenty years have passed. What happened and how did we get to where we are today?

In 1958 the Burmese military assumed power at the invitation of Prime Minister U Nu though the military would have done so without his approval and it ruled with great effectiveness. Political scientists of the time viewed this as a positive development because the military were seen as a disciplined effective force and a good alternative to the politicians who were seen as corrupt. Elections were then held in 1960 and the military stepped down but then seized power again in 1962 and things changed dramatically. This time their intent was to hold onto power and the military has remained the dominant force in that society ever since. That does not mean it cannot reform and treat its people better. China has a military in power that is not accountable to the people and it has done many things to raise living standards and become the world's second largest economy.

Burmese Socialist Programme Party policies, however, were disastrous for a number of reasons. In colonial days the economy was in foreign hands, dominated by the British, as well as Indians and Chinese. The Burmese were relegated to minor industries and petty trading. One of the most important issues the government faced was how to get the economy under Burmese control and this remains one of the important motivations to this day. How was this achieved? On independence, the government decreed that all land belonged to the state although communes were never instituted, and put into place a socialist system. As a result most production was in government hands in a highly nationalistic environment. To do this successfully, however, you need a highly competent bureaucracy, such as what exists in Sweden. What they did though was to purge capable bureaucrats and replace them with military officers. Most of these people were enthusiastic and meant well, but managing the economy was beyond their competence. At the same time you had a highly personal system of power with one man, General Ne Win, in charge. Since he was head of the military since 1949, he was in control of all significant promotions. His word was law and all decisions he and subsequent military rulers made could not be challenged. This may now be changing but it is still early to judge.

Not only were these policies badly conceived, but they were arbitrarily enforced. It was not a communist system, there were no collective farms and it was not like North Korea or China, but they did nationalize most industries. The costs of imports and spare parts rose and the value of exports went down and in 1987 they had a major crisis. Foreign exchange reserves were as low as $30 million, which amounts to a couple of week's imports. Then in a colossal mistake the government decided to demonetize larger notes, which represented about 2/3s of the currency with no compensation. People then lost all faith in the currency believing this would happen again. They held rice or whatever would hold value. Burmese industry declined, and the economy virtually collapsed.

Since the borders with China were opening Chinese goods came in, in what proved to be the start of expanded influence in the country; the Burmese could not compete further, which further depressed the economy. The government has since acknowledged this error and the 2008 constitution has an article against demonetization.

In March 1988, the Government of Japan -- who provided about half of all foreign aid to Myanmar at the time -- told the nation it needed to reform their economic policies or Japan would reconsider their aid program. As a result, Myanmar decided they would not continue down the socialist road. Just before the coup of September 18, 1988, the government modified the system and after the coup enacted an investor-friendly investment law and invited companies to do onshore oil resource exploration. Eventually an off-shore gas pipeline was developed to supply energy to Thailand; Total and Chevron are major investors. Today, the Government has about $5 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

Recent developments have raised hope about the prospect for change, yet there have been several periods in the past where this also looked likely. Should we be more optimistic at the present time?

We certainly should be, but these changes are fragile, and our optimism should be heavily tempered. Since the inauguration of the new government, we have witnessed an amazing set of decisions and statements. In his inaugural address, the President announced that the nation's health and education systems were in bad shape and had to be reformed. He also noted the need to treat minorities better, and to eliminate corruption. The Burmese are forming the Myanmar Development Resources Institute with presidential approval to help with future planning.

In October 2011, the IMF sent a delegation to Myanmar and one of the main issues to be discussed is how they can achieve a unified exchange rate. That is a major development given the official rate today is about 6.3 as opposed to about 850 on the grey market. We have also seen the formation of a Human Rights Commission and the development of a new labor law with ILO approval concerning labor standards and the formation of unions, while granting workers the right to strike. The President has also invited all Burmese who have not committed serious crimes such as murder to come back to build the country. Critical has been the stoppage of construction of a major $3.6 billion Chinese dam on the Irrawaddy that was much hated by the people; the president said he was listening to the people's will.


All of these things are very significant and the environment for business is changing very quickly. There is opposition however, including from within the military and the transformation will be gradual -- though this is far beyond what anyone what would be imagined even months ago.

I've always looked at Myanmar as something of a Southeast Asian Yugoslavia inhabited by the Burmese people and a diverse range of minority groups. What are the prospects for a successful democratization in an environment of that kind? Can we see real national cohesion in a democratic environment or will we see a fracturing such as that which occurred in Yugoslavia?

The days of minority groups spinning off along the lines of a Yugoslav model are over, but I believe the minority issue is the most serious issue facing Myanmar today -- even more serious than democracy itself. Recent actions though have been positive. This government has established seven minority and seven Burman local legislatures under a national legislature. This is a first, and something that has never been seen before. We don't know how it will work but there is a spirit of hope for some sort of pluralism there. Civil society is also active. Such pluralism won't go too far or too fast, and over time it may not be what we have or want in government for ourselves, but if we allow it time, it can develop into something the Burmese peoples feel comfortable with.

From 1997 to 2008, the US enacted several laws and presidential executive orders that imposed sanctions on Myanmar. You have described these as in some ways being more severe than those imposed on North Korea.


What led to these actions and what are the effectiveness of these measures?

After the coup of September 1988 sanctions were imposed as an emotional reaction to events in Burma. At first they were not called sanctions. US policy requires that we stop economic assistance in any country that has had a coup, and we did this in Burma in 1988, and we have done this in the past with Thailand as well. Then the Government denied the results of the May 1990 elections, which entrenched the military. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) has also had a large influence. While she does not make US policy, no administration has chosen to disagree with her. That may change and I think it will over time.

I met with Bill Richardson in 1992 before one of his trips to Myanmar and he told me sanctions would be passed as some people in Congress wanted them and no one would vote in favor of the prior regime. The first sanctions were in 1997. Further sanctions were taken in 2003 after ASSK was roughed up during a trip to central Myanmar, and again in 2008 after the Saffron revolution of 2007. Now there are people who want still more sanctions even though these measures have not proven to be effective in influencing change within Myanmar.


People who advocate for sanctions do have the moral high ground, but once implemented, sanctions are exceedingly difficult to eliminate. One can always say -- no matter how far efforts are made to address underlying problems -- they have not made enough progress. These people have certainly done very bad things but the question is: what are US interests there? We certainly have an interest in people and human rights, but we also have strategic and other interests including environmental, disaster relief, regional and commercial.

What that means is our policy in a country like Myanmar needs to be complex, and nuanced. As far as I know, the first mention of China as a concern within our Myanmar policy was in September 2009 when Senator Jim Webb raised the issue of their involvement in Myanmar at a Senate Asian Subcommittee hearing. It seems obvious to me that this has been carefully analyzed in the classified literature, to which I do not have access. The problem, however, is that in a democracy such as ours, if you are to develop a more multifaceted foreign approach, you have to bring the people along and educate them as to why this is important. The inability of our governments under both the Clinton and Bush administrations to make this a concern and explain it to people is reprehensible. I think we should have a dialogue. This did not exist before Obama came in and we are now just beginning to acknowledge that the past twenty years of sanctions have been a failure -- but a weakened Obama administration is not likely to waste any of their political ammunition and capital on fighting for changes in policy with members of both parties in the Congress.

So at the moment if we have more releases of political prisoners we may get some amelioration of the sanctions but I do not expect a total relaxation.

Recently we have seen a number of changes in Myanmar, including the election of a non-military government, the release of ASSK as well as the release of some 6,000 prisoners, of whom some 200 or so are said to be political prisoners. What is motivating these changes and how do you see them progressing moving forward?

The motivation in part is the government's interest in ensuring more balanced relations between Myanmar and the outside world. They don't want to be so reliant on China though on the other hand they do not want to be reliant on the US either. They fear us but do understand the need to be balanced. The government perhaps is pre-empting popular discontent by promising changes, hope for additional legitimacy, is looking to ensure that it will be given the Chair of ASEAN in 2014, and does want to develop its economy. Whatever the motivations, these are positive developments. One of the most interesting developments is the canceling of the Chinese-financed Myitsone Dam, Myanmar's largest hydropower project, in a move, which the Chinese were reported to learn about through the media and have since expressed concern. Given that China has been Myanmar's major benefactor in recent decades, what would prompt the authorities in Myanmar to take such a drastic action and what do you think of the implications of this development?Construction of the dam was not cancelled, but postponed until at least 2015, after which the new Burmese government will decide what to do. I believe the popular view that Myanmar is a client state of China is inaccurate. While it is true they have been dependent on China, Myanmar is highly nationalistic and they do not wish to be seen as subservient. That has been a constant theme in Myanmar politics throughout the post-colonial era.

The decision on the dam was due to popular concern that went beyond the Kachins and was influenced by growing anti-Chinese sentiment. This is due to the growing presence of Chinese products against which local producers find it hard to compete, as well as illegal immigration and the Sinification of cities such as Mandalay, where they are coming to have a dominant influence. The Chinese have come into Myanmar but have not displayed enough sensitivity coming from a comparatively wealthy to a poor country. I've asked a scholar to do a paper on attitudes of people in Myanmar toward China as expressed in the Myanmar media, and this should prove extremely interesting.


According to media reports the head of the Chinese company in charge of the dam said he was not informed in advance, but I have been told the Chinese government was informed about Burmese concerns, though perhaps the corporation may not have been. From what I have heard, this Burmese concern was not sudden. Finally, one should note the construction was halted and not reversed. The Prime Minister said it would not be completed during his term. So depending upon what evolved in the interim, we might see a resumption of activity in 2015.One US senior official has talked about the "winds of change" in Myanmar and in the last three years, there have been four separate high-level bilateral meetings between the two countries on U.S. soil, including a visit by the Myanmar Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin with Special Representative and Policy Coordinator for Burma Ambassador Derek Mitchell, Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Assistant Secretary Michael Posner and East Asian and Pacific Affairs Assistant Secretary Kurt Campbell at the State Department last month. What do you make of these meetings and the relationship between Myanmar and the US moving forward?

There were at least two meetings in New York in addition to those in Washington and I think the purpose of those meetings were to show they were serious about reform. I don't know if the dam was part of those discussions.



The test was, and always has been, the release of political prisoners, not the dam, and that is unresolved. There are rumors there may be another release before the Bali meeting of the East Asia Summit, which President Obama will attend, but I don't know. And while there was an announcement for the release of over 6000 prisoners, only a couple hundred have been released to date, and we don't know the total number of political prisoners-whether 2,100 or 500 or any other number. What the promoters of sanctions are trying to do is say: this government is illegitimate, based on a bad constitution passed in a manipulated referendum, and elected in a flawed manner, so we should not deal with them no matter what they do. So, they might argue, unless and until ASSK's National League for Democracy assumes power, the sanctions should remain in place. The question for the US is whether we will go along with these critics in a coming election year.

The administration seems to want to do something and are hoping the Myanmar government will give them enough political room to do something positive, but we will see. I think the US could say if these economic reforms are serious and the IMF says they will go ahead, we would not object if the Asian Development Bank and World Bank explore assistance if the Burmese government meets the multilateral institutional standards of transparency and good governance. This would not cost the US anything in terms of funding. Perhaps there would be some political and some congress disapproval, but it could serve as an initial step to test the waters toward greater engagement.

Other countries such as India, Japan and its Southeast Asian neighbors also factor into any discussion of Myanmar, and Myanmar is being considered to be the chair of ASEAN as early as 2014. How are these relationships evolving and are there any major developments we should be aware of moving forward?


The European Union has modified their sanctions policy on the basis of the new government coming in. They are split, however, and the UK is taking a hard line. Many counties in the EU do not like the common position. Australia already has things going and Canada does have sanctions. Japan would like to restart its economic development program and now provides "humanitarian assistance" in a very broadly defined manner. ASEAN will probably approve Myanmar chairing ASEAN in 2014, and the question will be whether the US will attend and if so, under what conditions.












In recent decades Myanmar has done litt
le to develop its physical and economic infrastructure, so even if sanctions are overturned there will be a major obstacles before the nation can fully open itself up for trade and investment. Can you talk a bit about some of the issues that will be faced?

Actually, the military have built more infrastructure than any previous government. Whether that was wise in terms of priorities, whether they printed more money to do so and increased inflation, and whether they employed forced labor are all legitimate questions. More is needed without question, but the social sector has suffered and health, education and agricultural credit are just a few of the issues that need to be addressed. Change may be slow. While progress is likely to be achieved, this is not going to be a complete turnaround by any measure.




I have been against sanctions but once they were implemented they can only be removed and the situation resolved in a well thought out manner. This is necessary to allow a successful transition to a new relationship that advances US policy interests as well as the aspirations of the people of Myanmar. As a former Burmese foreign minister noted that when the West talks about carrot and sticks, they should remember that the Burmese are not donkeys.

Thank you David for your time and attention. Look forward to talking again soon.


This interview is part of an ongoing series highlighting Asia-related business, trade and investment opportunities and issues.

Keith W. Rabin serves as President at KWR International, Inc., a consulting firm specializing in the delivery of Asia-focused trade, business and investment development, research and public relations/public affairs services for corporate and government clients.

Earlier in his career he served as Executive Director of a global trading company, which focused on business development in Myanmar and Southeast Asia. For more information, please visit http://www.kwrintl.com


တီးမယ္

PALI ZI. CHAU’ CHE’ PALI OU: GYI PALI ZI. NJAN: HSIN

PALI ZI. CHAU’ CHE’  PALI OU: GYI  PALI ZI. NJAN: HSIN
[Stuff and nonsense – lies] [Wheeler, one who deceives in an endearing way] [Using deceits as scaffolding]

Maung Thar Kyaw

The Statement, dated October 30th, and with the Place mentioned as: Sane Lai Kan Thar, the name of the State Guest House: ‘from 13:00 to 13:55 Daw Aung San Su Kyi [ASSK] came to see Union Minister U Aung Kyi, as she was invited by the Government of the Republic of Myanmar’ was issued.

At the Meeting the discussion dwelled on the situation where ‘the State is providing necessary assistances [meaning Constitution Amendments, for example, I guess]; and, in order to have economic development views on the importance of freedom of trade, and free circulation of currencies were also discussed’. And also, ‘the progress of the State’s undertakings to obtain perpetual peace initiatives with ethnic armed groups and the people that should be included in the amnesty were discussed’. Meetings in the future shall convene is agreed.

Details of the entire Meeting were not disclosed, as usual. This is the fourth time such Meeting had taken place.

After the Third Meeting between the two factions the Statement mentioned that the President was considering Amnesty, to join hands in controlling the flow of the Irrawaddy River, to bring in into legal folds of the people who are undergoing armed rebellion; and peace and rule of law were discussed.

After meeting with Aung Kyi twice ASSK met the President Thein Sein in August in Naypyidor. Soon afterward, over 200 so-called political prisoners were released under Amnesty Order. So-called political prisoner because the Governing clique consistently mentioned there is no political prisoners in Myanmar though there are plenty. There is some truth in the government’s claim that there is no political prisoner because no one was arrested under political issues but rather on criminal charges - for example: currency law, or disturbing public tranquility, etc.

ASSK met with Aung Kyi nine times under the previous military government but there was no substantive result whatsoever came out.

The Government came into existence on January 31, 2011 under the caption of the Government of the Republic of Myanmar with its President elected by the Union Parliament, a former military officer General Thein Sein. Many opinionated this General is a Dove – a soft liner, and his Deputy President Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo [Shit Loane], another ex-General is a Hawk – a hard liner; all baloney; they all are one liner, i.e. for the prosperity and welfare of the Armed Forces, meaning the top and upper echelon of the Army, under the guise of democracy.

New Guise needs, of course, new format and that new format is what the new government is formatting or formatted by the military junta before the State Power was transferred and implementing it as planned. Whether former SG Than Shwe is pulling the string from behind or is he still involved in day to day affairs are all irrelevant, though his State managed private office near Oatparta Thati Pagoda in Naypyidor is hooked with Online TV honing in onto the proceedings of the Union Parliament. He knows or he is privy to know who is behaving or misbehaving in the Union Parliament but whether he is watching the TV is something yet to be known or playing his favorite games.

The Executive, Judiciary, and Legislature were formed and on March 30th the State Power was transferred; the military junta SPDC was dissolved. The Ministry of Interior had given warnings to NLD Chairman Aung Shwe and Secretary ASSK in the last week of June to stop all its political activities as NLD is no political party according to the Party Registration Law of the Union Election Commission. The Ministry warning emphatically mentioned that NLD’s actions were intentionally motivated against the Law.

On top of that Union Election Commission had warned with a letter dated April 5th to all 37 Registered Political Parties not to communicate with illegal political entities. Presumably, political circles as well as diplomatic community considered the warning was directed towards NDL.

Though the new government’s changing color is visible it is still noticeably unruly. The disregards of public opinions as well as international barrages remain as the hallmark of the Thein Sein’s Administration.

Disregarding its own Ministry’s Order Thein Sein allowed Minister Aung Kyi to parley with ASSK and even invited her to Naypyidor and received her exclusively where all political leaders from the Registered Political Parties are treated shabbily at the same occasion.

The Constitution was amended proposed by the Union Election Commission regarding the Membership where criminals cannot be party members or a political entity cannot register if its members are serving criminals. That phrase has now been erased for the sake of NLD. That amendment had made eased NLD to avoid the issue of abandoning its own jailed members when and if they apply for Party Registration.

The antagonistic political ogres of Burma are, on the visual body politics, in cordial relationship. One is, up to recent past, enjoyed full support of China and now trying its best to veer off to get into the western orbit. The other ogre has, from the very beginning to present, receives consistent and absolute no-matter-what support from the western camp. It has four Radio stations providing overwhelming support in high volume of propaganda just for one person, viz. Radio Free Asia and Voice of America [two US outfits], BBC [British outfit], and Democratic Voice of Burma [EU outfit] beaming into Burma where people are socket in with one line to support, day in and day out, every day. This ogre is the western group’s horse of Burma and Thein Sein Administration wants to ride along with that horse to the winning post. Is consistent propping up necessitate a leader to become an icon? Yes, it is, at least in Burma, it has been proven!

Within a couple of days NLD will decide whether to register and the outcome is quite predictable: ‘if ASSK is promised to contest in the upcoming By-election then NLD will allow to Register by ASSK regardless of party or public opinion’. Does it mean: ‘if she is not allowed to contest in the upcoming By-election’ then NLD will not be permitted to register by ASSK? Quite likely so, as all the past behaviors indicated that: ‘person is superior to policy’, and the ‘party is dispensable’.

So far, there is no knowledge that the outcome of the Aung Kyi-Su Kyi Meeting had agreed whether ASSK will be allowed to contest in the election. If that is the case the amendment of the constitution will be a major issue. At the end of the day, one faction will sure to swallow the other like python. No on

e knows, which one will come out as the python and which one is Mai Dwe Lay.

Maung Thar Kyaw

Taiwan, November 3, 2011.



OUR COUNTRY -----

Burmese society is unique. With extended family system Burmese are laid back, or rather happy go lucky.
Sayar-Dagar relationship, or, the bond between the Sanghas and laymen is deep rooted and has been part of the culture from the time immemorial.

Elderly people spend time at pagodas or the monasteries sharing merits or family gossip, or whatever, and, that is how, unlike the Western society, members of the Burmese society do not need much of psychiatrists’ assistance.

Quiet time, alone, communicating with the Lord Buddha is part and parcel of our heritage we all enjoy tremendously. Visiting pagodas had never needed permission from the authorities.

see all

http://uk.geocities.com/kabarmakyay/Our_Country.pdf

Are these happening in Burma!

As long as one enriches him/her-self in the decadences the sky is the limit, as the junta would not bother them, that’s the saying goes in present context of Burma.
Thinzar Win, a Model, could do pretty well on Catwalk and other walks such as Burmanization of Bikini, for example. Just kicked off the blouse and the jeans and leave only bra and the underwear, that becomes Bikini, as simple as that. Look!



Here she is, Thinzar Win, on the right.

Could you still think you are looking at Burmese girls who are posting for this photo in Rangoon? If you think the junta is to be blamed for all decadent aspects, then, your thinking may be inconclusive.

Shwedarling.com, a website for dating and mating prevails in today’s Burma. In 1988 no one could dream that Burma would be at this stage today but it has advanced so fast and so vast.

Infested with nouveau riche in the ngathalau’ economy decadences are abound; instead of tea break at usual hour at or around 4:00 PM now the nouveau riche have new past time at 3:30 PM or so – “Time to squeeze Pau’ Si” at Karaoke bars that are mushrooming through out Burma!

Junta’s policies may have pushed urbanites to that corner but it is just a plain excuse. Getting along by going along is a sin, by all means.

Here is another exhibit to think of!

Moe Hay Ko, another Model, good at Catwalk as well as other walks – bed walk [?] smooching somewhere in the quiet corner!

These girls really have come out of Burmese cocoon – hi ri. u’ ta’ pa. [Shame and fear of sinning] for sure.

Mind you dear reader – the decaying culture of the people is unfathomable, especially the urbanites, the sponsors of such decadences, and, contemplate what reforms would be needed for our beloved country. Mind you, the tiger would never change into vegetarian out of pity for animals!

Salamani Kantchalar!

Burma was under absolute monarchy from 1044 AD until 1885 AD and was under different dynasties. The Monarchs yearned to possess White Elephant; i.e. to claim as the Owner of the White Elephant or Sin Phyu Shin, or, if they have more than one White Elephant, then, Sin Phyu Myarr Shin!

One White Elephant-crazy king even commanded to retrieve a dead elephant floated down the river that had resemblances of White Elephant and kept in his palace and claimed he was the Sin Phuy Shin.

White Elephant is considered to represent the power and glory of the Owner and the White Elephant would appear, according to the myth, only if the Ruler of the country has strong Power and Glory.

Burma has dictators since 1962: viz. Ne Win, Saw Maung, Than Shwe; and, all of them seem to believe that they were the royalty somehow or other. The last dynasty, Koane Baung, ended with His Majesty King Thibaw. The prophecy had it that there would be 13 Koane Baung kings to reign Burma. Thibaw was the 11th and two more kings are yet to reign. Ne Win presumed he was the 12th Koane Baung King! Saw Maung seemed to have believed that he was the reincarnation of King Kyan Sit Tharr of the Pagan Dynasty, and, Than Shwe believes he was the reincarnation of King Thar Lun.

During Thar Lun Than Shwe’s reign, a White Elephant was sited in the jungle of Rakhine State. With pomp and pageantry the White Elephant was brought to Rangoon, the then Nay Pyi Daw and kept in the highly decorated pavilion that befits only to the royalty with special elephant guards, etc., so on and so forth. All the necessary arrangements were carried out by MI and its Chief Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt who believes he was the reincarnation of Bayint Naung of Taungngoo Dynasty, though he never got to the top most spot of the junta’s ivory tower. The propaganda mill was fanning at high speed that the current rulers of Burma have highly auspicious power and glory so much so that the White Elephant was presented by the Nats [Resplendent being worthy of veneration].

Within a few months after the White Elephant had settled in at the newly built pavilion a Bangladeshi, or, to be more exact, a Chittagonian, or better known in Burma as Khortaw Kalar showed up at the Bangladeshi Embassy in Rangoon, claiming that the elephant at the Pavilion was his elephant that was herded away by the Burmese while grazing in the jungle and requested the Bangladeshi Ambassador to reclaim the elephant from the Burmese junta on his behalf. To cut the story short the Ambassador along with the Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and MI officers went to the Pavilion with the Khortaw Kalar and demanded to prove his claim.

There, Khortaw Kalar stepped out and bellowed: Salamani Kantchalar!

At the very instant the ‘Command’ was heard the White Elephant lifted up his trunk and trumpeted a very loud noise. The ‘Command’ was given for the second time and the White Elephant responded in the same manner again. Then, Khortaw Kalar commanded in more Khortaw words: the White Elephant was under complete spell of commands – sitting, kneeling, etc. Now, the claim was proven to be true and the negotiation was but started. MI ended up paying US $ 100,000.00 from the State coffer as demanded by the Khortaw Kalar for the White Elephant that was supposed to have been presented by the Nats due to the power and glory of the rulers of Burma.

Khortaw did not stop then and there. He added there are four more such elephants in his possession and they were up for sale if the price is right. MI arranged a delegation to accompany the Khortaw to his native village in the no-man’s land between Bangladesh and Burma to inspect the so called White Elephants. There, the delegation found two more White Elephants out of the four and agreed to pay US$ 200,000 a piece.

Burmese delegation could not just take the two elephants away they bought; they need the Khortaw to release the two in the Rakhine jungle for them to herd them back to Burma later as though it was naturally sited. Thus, the usurper royalties of Burma got three White Elephants at a price of US $ 500,000.

Some one got excited regarding the Salamani Kantchalar and traced back how it came into existence! In the anal of Burma there was a time when a Shan Prince by the name of Sao Han Pha, better known as Tho Han Bwa reigned Burma. He was a tyrant by all means; conceited and insolent, and very much anti-Buddhist religion. During his rein many Monks were tortured, killed and extradited to far away places and forced them from learning Buddhist scripture. Tho Han Bwa was the Daman daye [impediment endangering the teachings of Buddha] of his time. Under Tho Han Bwa, some aspects of Buddhist incantations had changed; for example: Buddhan Tharanan Gitsarmi, Dhaman Tharanan Gitsarmi but Sanghan Tharanan was turned into Gunsarmi, and Buddhan Puzaymi, Dhaman Puzaymi, and Sangan had turned into Pu-Jail-mi, just like recent events under Daman daye Thar Lun Than Shwe.

Many Burmese fled to far away places, including Burma-Bangladesh border to fight back Tho Han Bwa and/or other tyrants. There, they deployed Khortaws to attend their elephants. Khortaws were taught to learn ‘Commands’ in Burmese but it was very difficult for the Khortaws to learn the necessary commands for the elephants. By virtue of wits a Burmese gave a ‘battle command or a battle cry’ for the elephants: “Sarr Lho. Ma Nyee Kanazoe Thee”, in rhyme with the actual command. That, Khortaw could learn with not much difficulty. As the time woes on the command Sarr Lho. Ma Nyee Kanazoe Thee had resonance into Salamani Kantchalar!

Ne Win who presumed to be the 12th Koane Baung, Saw Maung who presumed to be the reincarnation of King Kyan Sit Tharr of the Pagan Dynasty, and the cagey sly fox Khin Nyunt who believes he was the reincarnation of Bayint Naung of Taungngoo Dynasty had all but ended badly. Now we have to see how Than Shwe who believes he was the reincarnation of King Thar Lun ended? Is it to believe that those who sit on such chairs excrete such excreta?

As a matter of fact, the real Owner of the White Elephants or the Sin Phyu Myarr Shin actually was the Khortaw Kalar of Bangladesh!

By the way,
All the Usurpers,
Ne Win, Saw Maung, Than Shwe are mere “Suu Yauts”!


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